Poker Risk Management
13 Jan 2010
Kyle Siler of Cornell University in the USA has analysed 27 million hands of online poker and in doing so has come up with some strange results, namely that the greater the number of hands you win, the more likely you are to lose money. Siler was not only interested in poker but also studies how people deal with risk, reward and variable payoffs.
Generally, your risk-of-ruin percentage depends on two factors: The size of your bankroll; Your skill level; To decrease your level of risk, you can play with a larger bankroll. Additionally, the better you are at poker, the lower your risk of ruin. The Risk Management function of the Back Office operations for Cybergaming works on solutions that an are built on a highly advanced device identification and reputation management platform to prevent online fraud, abusive behavior, and unauthorized access to online services.
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Poker Risk Management
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Researchers develop a poker-like risk management system to help software developers identify potential flaws in their code before they write it; Red Hat's IT group one of the first to test tool.
He used a piece of software called Poker Tracker to analyse 6 player no-limit Texas Hold 'Em games at low, medium and high stakes tables and in doing so discovered the odd relationship between the number of winning hands won and the money lost. Not surprisingly, he also discovered that more money was lost by was novice players.
He claims the reason for this is more wins were for small stakes and that this tended to make players over confident about their abilities only to get blown away by losing just a few big pots.
He also noted that players in small stakes games do better with relatively poor cards, in particular low pairs. The reason is that there is a tendency to over-value large pairs and bet too high on them.
He applies this to much of life. For instance, if you make several small gains on the stock market, you might get too confident and lose a lot of money on a large investment. He even applies it to driving; if you get away with breaking the speed limit by a small amount, then you might be tempted to break it by a lot more and get in trouble. He even applied it somewhat tenuously to adultery.
Perhaps there is something in all this; after all poker is about managing risk, and it is the skill to do this successfully that differentiates the poor players from the talented ones. The lesson to be learned seems to be not to overestimate your abilities.